The State of the Race: Unprecedented Territory for a Third Party Candidate
Following the release of two polls, one by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and one by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the Babinec campaign released its own polling confirming the race is tightening as we head into the last 60 days of the campaign. The Babinec poll, consistent with the NRCC and DCCC polls, all show Babinec with at least 20% in the head to head – this is unprecedented territory for a third party congressional candidate.
- Babinec is positioned to win in November. Following three unchallenged weeks of advertising, throughout the district, the race now stands at Tenney 36.1%, Babinec 20.2% and Myers 17.9% while 25.8% remain undecided
- Martin is surging. The only candidate demonstrating sustained growth is Babinec – moving from 3% in a June poll and 11% in a July poll (both conducted by John Zogby Strategies) to 20% in August. The same polling shows Tenney stalled at 37% -36% and Myers falling dramatically from 46% to 18% (see graph below)
- Babinec pulls from both Republicans and Democrats, Democrats at 6.6% and Republicans 9.5%
- Almost a quarter of the electorate remains up for grabs. Unlike the Myers DCCC poll released on September 1st, our polling shows over 25% of the electorate remains undecided
- Trump trouncing Clinton. Donald boasts a very strong lead over Hillary in the 22nd Congressional district leading her 47% – 29%
Martin Babinec is the only candidate demonstrating sustained growth
Independent candidate Martin Babinec is the only candidate showing positive movement. As the campaign enters the stretch drive and voters start to tune in to the race, there is an opportunity for continued and accelerated growth.
Tenney who represents a large swath of the district, as a three-term member of the New York State Assembly, has failed to coalesce Republicans, and lacks the resources to compete.
Moreover, as a perennial candidate who has run or advanced her candidacy for different offices at least 10 times in the last 8 years, Tenney is a virtual incumbent, not well positioned to seize the anti-establishment fervor that is strong among voters in both parties.
At the same time, the Myers campaign, which was ordained early by the DCCC, has squandered their considerable initial advantage. Hobbled by chaos in her campaign organization and buried under the weight of Clinton’s persistent negative ratings, Myers has dug herself a hole – losing ground in every poll.
Babinec’s message as a strong independent candidate, a job creator and an alternative to a broken and rigged political system is resonating with voters. The only campaign with full time offices staffed in Binghamton, Utica and Little Falls – his highly professional, bipartisan staff is executing on a game plan which the poll confirms is producing results.
The following survey was conducted on 8/25 and 8/26 2016 and consists of 502 likely voters. Broadnet, using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) with respondents, conducted interviews. The partisan composition of the poll is 47% Republican, 29% Democrat, 12% Independent and 6% Conservative. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 4.50%